watch once and then watch again and read
watch once and then watch again and read
I'm not gonna watch, I'll just say "repost" instead.
head in the sand..
I agree something amazingly large is coming, so what do we do? Serious question. I have thought about this and I can't really see any other course of action other then staying the course and knowing that whatever happens, we are in it together. I even hear of people in the US pulling their money out of the banking system.
Too sexy for this forum.
The financial sector is on the verge of collapse. This isn't a correction like before and the stock market is going to take a long time to recover from this.
Normally this would be a good time to buy but I keep hearing advise to invest in commodities instead. Look at the price of gold in the last couple of days.
Yeah, I'm pretty sure a depression is coming. What can you do when it's caused by people who had lots of money, made bad decisions, pretty much tanked their country's economy and will get a big severance after their bankrupcy?
Life is an STD with no cure and 100% fatality rate.
I'm hoping for a complete decay of society.
I plan to just go around to everyone else's house and take what I want. Because of the gun laws in Canada, most households won't have the resources to stop people like me.
Depression? Fuck that, a looting good time!
Team "Take it to the streets"
No Gear Never!
Paranoia? Maybe. But I'm glad I'm not an American homeowner right now.
"Fighting for peace is like screwing for virginity." George Carlin
I moved a lot of my net worth into Silver recently. As currencies fall, the precious metals will rise. I'm down more than 50K in stocks since January of this year. I've lost all faith in securities for the next few years.
Make sure you have a good amount in physical cash at your disposal, because when the shit does hit the fan, and there's no power, etc - good luck making a withdrawl from an atm.
Personally, I think THE best investment anyone in north america can be making right now; is small arms ammunition.
When it all falls apart at the seams, which it will soon enough... only those with weapons and munitions will be protected. The rest will be looted and robbed to death. Fuck stockpiling food and gas, buy guns and ammo - they're the ultimate currency
the federal reserve gave aig the 82 billion they needed.. the funny thing is that the FR is a private corporation and basically printed money out of thin air in exchange for assets.. i wish i could do that
funny how corrupt the system is yet few are able to clue in
Typical fear mongering driven by a lack of real understanding of what's happening.
Long story short, people drove up the price of housing beyond all reason and entrenched an idea that housing prices would continue to go up forever and not go down. That emboldened them to lend/borrow on stupid terms because "they could always sell the home for a profit".
Clearly that was irrational and now we're paying the price.
I am not oblivious to the gravity of the situation. It is serious. This is a financial crisis of a generation. It is not however a time to let fear and panic take over, it is a time for clarity in thought and logic.
Home prices went up, people felt wealthy.
Home prices started to go down, many people could not refinance or sell.
Delinquencies and defaults started to rise.
The ones to fall:
People who borrowed beyond their means.
People who had little equity and savings and lost their jobs.
The ones to survive:
People who had significant equity in their homes.
People who are still working and while their equity might evaporate in the shorter term they still see value in keeping their home.
As home prices kept rising they were throwing money at borrowers.
As home prices started going down and delinquencies started rising, the bonds funding these mortgages stopped trading.
Financial Institutions started marking down the value of these bonds because of a lack of trading to levels below the cash flow performance of the bonds.
The bonds continued to get written down as home prices fell and delinquencies rose.
Many of these bonds have been written down to 70% of their original value. Some of them have been marked down to 20%.
Think about this, if the bonds TRULY are worth 70% of their original value, that means every mortgage holder defaults, the bond holders take the homes and resell them for 70% of their original value. Same logic apllies to the ones marked down to 20% of their original value.
While some home prices are down 30%, many homes have more than 30% equity. Mortgage defaulters will be a minority, not a majority.
The storm is being driven by fear. There are real values being lost but not the magnitude that people fear.
Central banks are much more sophisticated than during the depression of the 1930s. To get to a depression we have to see MASSIVE job losses which we have not. While the US has been posting job losses throughout 2008, these job losses have been less than expected, have been less than previous recessions, and the unemployment rate is still low. YES it's a strain on the system but it is not a snap.
There will be many opportunities and pitfalls in this environment. The pitfalls are obvious: Bear Stearns, Freddie, Fannie, Lehman, Merrill Lynch, AIG, and there will be others, including regional banks. But many of these are being driven by an evaporation of liquidity (they cannot turn long-term assets to cash) rather than their assets becoming worthless.
I've said it before, about 30% of homes in the US are DEBT FREE.
Of the remaining 70% of homes (100% of the mortgage pool), 20% are in the "sub-prime" category.
Of that 20% in sub-prime, another 20% are in the extremely high risk category and they will probably all be gone. The other 80% are normal fixed rate mortgages where people just have weak credit ratings and default rates in that group are much more "normal".
Do the math.. 20% of 20% of 70% is 2.8% of all homes are the worst.
If you look at it from the mortgage pool only, 20% of 20% is 4% of all mortgages are the worst.
Throw in some elevated default rates in the regular mortgage pool and you'll get a bigger picture of the total impact, maybe it's 7% of all mortgages.. ?
That's a big number but it's not the 100% that everyone is worried about.
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so."
I have a lot to say but I don't have time to be part of this debate, all I can say is good post Jamie.
personally i love it !!! for example the tsx market looking pretty down at the moment one stock ive watched
UTS (ticker) oil/gas company 5.00 share roughly in the past 3 months 3-4mil/day in volume its up to 10-20 mill a day and sitting at 1.50/share with a low of 1.12 yesterday , thats just one stock of thousands, anyways needless to say cant lose at these prices if your a buyer in this market , ok well you can always lose in the market but your return can be greater but its all just speculation bah hahaha go go gadget shitty market !!
jamie your such an ANALyst !!!!! get back to work already
What very few people realize; is that the federal reserve is not even a part of the US government. It's a private outfit. That information alone should be enough to open some eyes down south, but the Americans are so fucking blind. A company lends them their own money, at interest. Money that is not even backed by anything nor controlled by their government. Oh, AIG needs 85 billion? Lets get the printers rolling... And they wonder why there is such a financial crisis. The more they print, the less it's worth.
Look into what happened on June 5, 1933. Since then, money is no longer real. It is worth only what the government decides it's worth. When the United States falls, the US dollar will literally be worth the paper it's written on. Look at Rome, look at Germany during WWII, all of their currencies went from valuable to zero overnight.
Look at inflation.... we think that real estate is appreciating (except for lately) that gas is going up, that food is going up.... it's all a myth. The cost of living is not going up, the money we buy it with is plummeting in value. It now takes more $$ to buy xx. That xx product is not worth anymore than it was in 1970.
It's far from a 'conspiracy'
Experts researching it all point to the Bildergerg Group. It's very real, it includes the worlds elite; the queen of the EU, powerful US bankers and law-makers, and it's MO is to create a one-world government and currency, and turn earths 6.5 billion into about 300 million. People argue that they are responsible for things such as cancer and aids, as well as world catastrophes caused by HAARP
It all seems like a bad movie when you look into it
Last edited by Fonix; 09-18-2008 at 10:48 AM.