I'll preface this with a disclaimer that you don't have to agree with me.
I think that, on the whole, the longer you ride the chances lessen that you'll be in a big crash. Sure the older guys go down, Bog took his last corner last year but look at it this way perhaps.
Do all the crashes involve n00bs because of riding ability or do they occur because hypothetically young n00b looking or acting riders comprise %50 of all riders so half the accidetns "appear" to be with n00b riders?
You can argue statistics until the cows come home. As you age and as you learn more, you take less risks and couple it with better skills. However, older riders usually ride faster I find. Because they can. Conversely, there are people with natural talent and learned talent. All these factors add up to a complex demographic that I'm sure insurance companies around the world have twisted with flawed data.
In the end I think riders with more seat time, and I mean HARD seat time (not riding a freakin' VFR to work every day) are marginally less likely to crash.
One of us will crash large one day. It's coming. I'll be callous and say I hope it's not me or one of my friends. If I went down it would be ugly and it would be my fault. I'd regret it too. No "he died doing what he loves" crap. I love sitting with Ramona sipping tea early Saturday mornings more than any bike ride.
That being said i leave the house and kiss her goodbye every time thinking I might not come home. I pull into the garage thinking I got one more ride.
Live, but don't live in fear. Live but don't invite death. Live, but make sure you enjoy it. Never take breathing or wiggling toes for granted. Ride hard and come home safe.