why can this not be me for **** sakes...

# Thread: why can this not be me for **** sakes...

1. ## why can this not be me for **** sakes...

2. WOW, whats the odds of that?! lucky bastard

3. Lucky........

4. I dont wanna nerd out here, but actually, the odds of that are the same as the odds of winning the lottery once. Statistically, the odds of winning the second time were not affected by the fact that he won the first time. This is because winning once doesn't make it any harder for someone to win again. All they have to do is buy another ticket for that draw, just like everybody else. It seems wierd but my Statistics prof spent an entire hour on this topic.

Sorry for nerding out.

5. You are forgiven for nerding out.
Now don't let it happen again!

6. Originally Posted by Zaider
I dont wanna nerd out here, but actually, the odds of that are the same as the odds of winning the lottery once. Statistically, the odds of winning the second time were not affected by the fact that he won the first time. This is because winning once doesn't make it any harder for someone to win again. All they have to do is buy another ticket for that draw, just like everybody else. It seems wierd but my Statistics prof spent an entire hour on this topic.

Sorry for nerding out.

thats mostly correct, depending on how you read what you said. the odds of winning each time are the same, however, the odds are multiplied to win twice. the chances of them catching that on film the second time were not affected by the fact that he had already won(as you said).

however, your prof may have used the example for at a casino in order to predict the certainty of a number or color coming up on the roulette table, in which case he's correct that the table has no memory, and you cannot say, for example, "black is more likely to show up this time b/c it hasn't for 8 times in a row now." each time the chances are the same...1 in 2 or 18/38 or whatever the odds are. Similarily you cant say that since ive lost 10 times now, im bound to win.

however, if you do win twice in a row, and your chances were 1/2(like flipping a coin), the probablility would have been 1 in 4 that it would turn out that way. And so, 1 in a million chance taken a hundred times and winning twice -more similar to the real life example here- would give a probability of 100/1,000,000 = 1/10,000 to win once, & ...1/10,000 * 1/10000 = 1/100,000,000 to win twice(not the same as saying "to win the second time").

7. but doesnt chaos theory somehow always show this type of thing happening lol, the "lucky streak" none the less it was only a measly 250 thousand, jeeze I make that in like 5 years so what hahaha what a cry baby. KIDDING!

8. Originally Posted by savagebovine
however, if you do win twice in a row, and your chances were 1/2(like flipping a coin), the probablility would have been 1 in 4 that it would turn out that way. And so, 1 in a million chance taken a hundred times and winning twice -more similar to the real life example here- would give a probability of 100/1,000,000 = 1/10,000 to win once, & ...1/10,000 * 1/10000 = 1/100,000,000 to win twice(not the same as saying "to win the second time").

9. winning the lottery doesnt always mean ull be wealthy....most lottery winners arnt able to cope with the money and lose it all very quickly

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