Vancouver housing prices: Adjustment or taking a dump?
Page 1 of 18 1 2 3 16 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 265

Thread: Vancouver housing prices: Adjustment or taking a dump?

  1. #1
    Fast Pack Slow Guy Array Tattoodles's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Location
    Lynn Valley represent WHAT?
    Bike
    A privileged sufferer settling for an Italian motorcycle

    Vancouver housing prices: Adjustment or taking a dump?

    I've been wanting to buy my first home for a couple of years now, since just before we got the Olympic bid. So the day after the bid, I suddenly couldn't afford to buy in Vancouver anymore. And it remained that way until a few months ago. I mean, I could afford a shit-hole or a 500 square foot bivouac but nothing my wife and I would want to live in.

    But recently we've seen what most folks in real estate were calling an 'adjustment'. Prices plateaued and then started to slide a bit. Nice places were staying on the market longer (remember, we're talking about downtown Vancouver here, not PoCo or Maple Ridge). But recently I'm starting to see places I actually would want to live in in downtown getting close to a price that we can afford.

    For instance, dropping $500k at 4.5% is in my comfort zone. Last year, that much money would get me a studio somewhere downtown. Now it will get you a 2 bedroom, modern apartment.

    So what direction do you (all those real estate gurus on BCSB) feel the market is heading in for downtown Van?

  2. #2
    Vindicated Array JamieJames's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    C eh N eh D eh
    Bike
    2006 GSXR 750
    It's the worst kept secret that I believe downtown condo prices are due for a substantial adjustment. I'm not necessarily saying they will go down 20-30% but if they did I wouldn't be surprised in the least. I also wouldn't be surprised if they went down by less than that.

    I've been keeping an eye on some of the developments and we're seeing a substantial proportion of the units go on sale shortly after completion. Not only does that tell me "demand" in the past was over stated but we're also going to have excess supply. Many of these people can't afford to carry the mortgages and the current asking prices are too high for investors to be even cash flow neutral let alone positive. I've seen many places slightly reduce their asking prices but most continue to sit on the market and supply continues to increase.

    Basically the fundamentals are out of wack and they will continue to get worse as supply increases and all the panic buyers have left the market.

    You cannot extrapolate previous historical and seasonal trends into this market because there are so many variables at play and this market just isn't rational right now. As recently pointed out in An Inconvenient Truth, Mark Twain once said "It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so." and I think a lot is being placed on conventional wisdom that just doesn't hold right now.
    Last edited by JamieJames; 12-22-2006 at 05:05 PM.
    "It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so."

    -Mark Twain

    Hello BCSB!

  3. #3
    doug
    Guest
    if my company starts with layoffs, it means the market is screwed. we are still hiring.

  4. #4
    User And Abuser Array alternateimpact's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    PoCo
    Bike
    2004 CBR 600 F4i
    Adam you are a defineitly a city boy! only city people could justify half a mill for an apartment. remember that the only way prices are gonna drop is if people stop buying these inflated priced homes on the current market. Happy hunting!

  5. #5
    streets belong 2 us Array Incantation's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Vancouver
    Bike
    f4i, 50(was stolen), k7 750
    no bachelor pad even comes close to 500.. 250 is high and 300 is ceiling

  6. #6
    Registered User Array VanDave's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    Burnaby
    Bike
    VTR1000
    Hardly a correction:

    http://www.realtylink.org/hpi/rebgvh...06&TYPE=buyers

    The market might have temporarily peaked, but I doubt it will drop significantly. I wouldn't expect more than 10% if it does happen.

    The economy is booming, employment is very strong and BC has a great future. Our population is increasing each year by around 50,000 people. The vacancy rate for rentals just dropped even lower recently. That means people have to keep buying the product that is being put on the market. Income growth is very strong as well.

    Many developments aren't being sold until completion nears due to the price and construction cost inflation in the last few years. A condo that a developer sold a year ago, would have sold for 17% more than a year ago. In addition, their construction costs went up during that period. For that reason, some developers are spreading their product out rather than dumping it all on the market before breaking ground.

  7. #7
    banned user Array adam112's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    home
    Bike
    bike
    I agree with Jamie on this one. But I think it is limited to the GVRD.
    Too sexy for this forum.

  8. #8
    banned user Array adam112's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    home
    Bike
    bike
    Quote Originally Posted by VanDave View Post
    The economy is booming, employment is very strong and BC has a great future. Our population is increasing each year by around 50,000 people. The vacancy rate for rentals just dropped even lower recently.
    Hi Dave,

    This statement seems contradictory to me. If employment is booming and there is a high demand in the workforce, you would think vacancy rates would be rising.

    Yes?
    Too sexy for this forum.

  9. #9
    Registered User Array VanDave's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    Burnaby
    Bike
    VTR1000
    Quote Originally Posted by adam112 View Post
    Hi Dave,

    This statement seems contradictory to me. If employment is booming and there is a high demand in the workforce, you would think vacancy rates would be rising.

    Yes?
    1% vacancy means 1% of rental units are available for rent.

    0.5% vacancy means less units are available for rent, which is caused by higher demand.

  10. #10
    banned user Array adam112's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    home
    Bike
    bike
    Quote Originally Posted by VanDave View Post
    1% vacancy means 1% of rental units are available for rent.

    0.5% vacancy means less units are available for rent, which is caused by higher demand.
    Yes I figured that much lol.

    What I as stating was that with a low unemployment rate, you would think more people would be purchasing based on the strong outlook of the economy, hence rental vacancies would rise.

    That just seems like common sense to me.
    Too sexy for this forum.

  11. #11
    Still defying gravity... Array Thumper 8's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2003
    Location
    Khatsahlano
    Bike
    3 and 6 cylinders of fury
    Quote Originally Posted by VanDave View Post
    1% vacancy means 1% of rental units are available for rent.

    0.5% vacancy means less units are available for rent, which is caused by higher demand.
    Don't forget the vacancy rate is calculated on the inventory of "rental" only buildings - strata-titled units owned by investors who rent are not factored into the vacancy rate. The actual number of available rental properties is much higher than the posted vacancy rate.

    And yes, the downtown market is a little soft now due to supply exceeding demand for the moment, but an awful lot of listings drop off the system Dec 31st (a lot of folks list 'til the end of the year). When January rolls around, the number of listings will drop, but I don't think we will see prices move too much either way downtown... they have already dropped a little and there has been a real pick-up in sales since the snow melted. Lotsa buyers moving into the market now that prices have stabilized/corrected/whatever.

    Just wait 'til interest rates drop in the spring.... here we go again!
    __________________

    aka Tony

    My WMRC/Pitt Meadows and other bike photos are at Thumphoto.com - follow on Twitter and connect on Facebook

    __________________

  12. #12
    banned user Array adam112's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    home
    Bike
    bike
    Quote Originally Posted by Thumper 8 View Post

    Just wait 'til interest rates drop in the spring.... here we go again!
    Oh thtop it thilly, your thuch a teath!!
    Too sexy for this forum.

  13. #13
    Mortgage Pimp Array J_Scott's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Whistler, BC
    Bike
    I'm just here for the intelligent conversation.
    I'll let you know when they get down to 4.5% Adam... we're not there yet.

    Jamie's been saying the same shit since I've known him... So basically if you think the opposite of him you're spot on.

  14. #14
    banned user Array adam112's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    home
    Bike
    bike
    Quote Originally Posted by J_Scott View Post
    I'll let you know when they get down to 4.5% Adam... we're not there yet.

    Jamie's been saying the same shit since I've known him... So basically if you think the opposite of him you're spot on.
    Yep we've talked. 10 years at a better rate then I have now you sexy bitch.
    Too sexy for this forum.

  15. #15
    Vindicated Array JamieJames's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    C eh N eh D eh
    Bike
    2006 GSXR 750
    Quote Originally Posted by Thumper 8 View Post
    Don't forget the vacancy rate is calculated on the inventory of "rental" only buildings - strata-titled units owned by investors who rent are not factored into the vacancy rate. The actual number of available rental properties is much higher than the posted vacancy rate.

    Just wait 'til interest rates drop in the spring.... here we go again!
    Tony.. you beat me to it about the vacancy rate.

    *edit - another reason the posted vacancy rate has gone down is because nobody has been building rental buildings. Why is that? Because it's not profitable.

    Also the Canadian economy is much more fragile than it appears and it's far from booming. 2% GDP growth is not booming and the last 2 months have been FLAT. Hardly booming. With oil and gas prices to go down significantly in 2007, and metals to continue to go down, the only threads keeping the Canadian economy hanging on are about to break.

    I don't agree about declining interest rates alone boosting demand in this case because a lot of demand was pushed forward by panic buying. While some people will buy because of lower interest rates I don't think it will be enough to compensate for increased sales.
    Last edited by JamieJames; 12-22-2006 at 06:22 PM.
    "It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so."

    -Mark Twain

    Hello BCSB!

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •