The United States of Subprime Loans
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Thread: The United States of Subprime Loans

  1. #1
    Registered User Array se7en's Avatar
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    The United States of Subprime Loans

    i know theres been lots of threads about subprime but check out the interest rate and monthly payments on one of the houses the author writes about. its at the bottom of the page

    As America's mortgage markets began unraveling this year, economists seeking explanations pointed to "subprime" mortgages issued to low-income, minority and urban borrowers. But an analysis of more than 130 million home loans made over the past decade reveals that risky mortgages were made in nearly every corner of the nation, from small towns in the middle of nowhere to inner cities to affluent suburbs.

    The analysis of loan data by The Wall Street Journal indicates that from 2004 to 2006, when home prices peaked in many parts of the country, more than 2,500 banks, thrifts, credit unions and mortgage companies made a combined $1.5 trillion in high-interest-rate loans. Most subprime loans, which are extended to borrowers with sketchy credit or stretched finances, fall into this basket.

    High-rate mortgages accounted for 29% of the total number of home loans originated last year, up from 16% in 2004. About 10.3 million high-rate loans were made in the past three years, out of a total of 43.6 million mortgages. High-rate lending jumped by an even larger percentage in 68 metropolitan areas, from Lewiston, Maine, to Ocala, Fla., to Tacoma, Wash.

    To examine the surge in subprime lending, the Journal analyzed more than 250 million records on mortgage applications and originations filed by lenders under the federal Home Mortgage Disclosure Act. Subprime mortgages were initially aimed at lower-income consumers with spotty credit. But the data contradict the conventional wisdom that subprime borrowers are overwhelmingly low-income residents of inner cities. Although the concentration of high-rate loans is higher in poorer communities, the numbers show that high-rate lending also rose sharply in middle-class and wealthier communities.

    Banks and other mortgage lenders have long charged higher rates to borrowers considered high-risk, either because of their credit histories or their small down payments. As home prices accelerated across the country over the past decade, more affluent families turned to high-rate loans to buy expensive homes they could not have qualified for under conventional lending standards. High-rate loans are those that carry interest rates of three percentage points or more over U.S. Treasurys of comparable durations.

    The Journal's findings reveal that the subprime aftermath is hurting a far broader array of Americans than many realize, cutting across differences in income, race and geography. From investors hoping to strike it rich by speculating on condominiums to the working poor chasing the homeownership dream, subprime loans burrowed into the heart of the American financial system -- and now are bringing deepening woe.

    The data also show that some of the worst excesses of the subprime binge continued well into 2006, suggesting that the pain could last through next year and beyond, especially if housing prices remain sluggish. Some borrowers may not run into trouble for years.

    "We had an aggressive home-mortgage industry trying to get people into homes they couldn't afford at a time when home prices were very high. It turned out to be a house of cards," says Karl Case, an economics professor at Wellesley College. "We're in the early stages of the cleanup."

    The Journal's analysis indicates that some major subprime lenders, such as Washington Mutual Inc.'s Long Beach Mortgage unit, began scaling back or tightening their standards a year or more ago. But commercial banks and thrifts filled the void, helping to sustain real-estate markets that might otherwise have begun cooling.

    The data suggest that financial suffering is likely to persist in many parts of the U.S. where subprime lending had surged. Many loans at risk of going bad have not yet done so. As much as $600 billion of adjustable-rate subprime loans, for example, are due to adjust to higher rates by the end of 2008, which means that more and more borrowers are likely to fall behind.

    Last September, Darla Ball, a printer and copier saleswoman, purchased a $460,000 home in Las Vegas using an adjustable-rate subprime loan with an initial rate of 8.2%. At the time, she says, she expected to refinance before her interest rate resets to 14% next year, which will raise her monthly payments to $8,000 from $3,700. But in the past year, she says, prices of comparable homes in her subdivision have fallen to $310,000, which means she would not qualify for a new $460,000 mortgage, unless home values go back up to that level, an unlikely scenario. She says she has stopped paying her mortgage and is trying to negotiate with her lender. "I'm going to lose my home anyway," she says, "so why pay?"

    Fort Myers, Fla., is known for its boulevard lined with palm trees, bankrolled years ago by its most famous snowbird, inventor Thomas Edison. These days, the city is fast earning a reputation as an example of the deepening U.S. mortgage crisis. The area's median sales price for existing homes is down 22% since December 2005. Foreclosures are running at an all-time high. And there is no end in sight
    Last edited by se7en; 10-17-2007 at 12:00 AM.

  2. #2
    Vindicated Array JamieJames's Avatar
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    Absolutely the housing market was impacted by speculators like Darla Bell who you highlighted.

    However the impact of this is not well understood. For example, the originations of these risky mortgages were 29% of the mortgages issued in 2005.

    That sounds like a lot.

    But more than 30% of all homes owned in the US are debt free.

    And of the homes with mortgages, a relatively small proportion of them are in these high risk categories.

    So at the end of the day, the economic impact is small, MAYBE 2% of home owners.

    I don't mean to gloss over the impact it has to those individuals, or the economic drag on the economy, but the sky is not falling.
    Last edited by JamieJames; 10-17-2007 at 10:22 AM.
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  3. #3
    Baby! Array Fusilli Jerry's Avatar
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    Not yet anyways.... when the fed did that half point cut in interest rates a month or so ago in order to "help home owners", it actually ended up raising the real interest everyone pays on thier mortage basically screwing the home owner over. Higher rates plus a lower doller and all this other stuff = a real possible US recession....just in time for CHristmas!!!

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